Tuesday, 24 April, 2018

How should Australia prepare for a US/China trade war?

Someone make Someone make
Julia Gonzales | 09 April, 2018, 00:41

This week's round two - over Chinese appropriation of U.S. intellectual property - marks an exponential escalation, with each side first threatening tariffs on $50 billion of the other's exports.

The further tariffs were being considered "in light of China's unfair retaliation" against earlier USA trade actions, which included a proposed $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump said in a White House statement on Thursday.

China responded to President Donald Trump's tariff threats releasing a list of 106 American exports that could face reciprocal taxes. China responded by saying it was ready to put import taxes on almost 40 percent of US products sent to China.

Washington has called for the $50 billion in extra duties after it said a probe determined Chinese government policies are created to transfer USA intellectual property to Chinese companies and allow them to seize leadership in key high-technology industries of the future.

On Wednesday, China announced its intentions to impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports from the U.S. as a tit-for-tat response to a similar plan announced by the American side in late-March. "Consequently, there could be little doubt that, should a full-fledged trade war break out, it would be a drag on the world economy at large", said the expert.

The real battle will come when America decides not to allow China to dominate the industries of the future by flaunting the rules that have governed the worldwide trading system since the end of World War II. USA stock futures ESc1 fell 1 percent and the dollar dipped against other major currencies.

Chinese state media yesterday denounced Mr Trump's latest threat, with nationalistic tabloid Global Times saying it reflected "the deep arrogance of some American elites in their attitude towards China".

"I'm not saying there's not going to be any pain", he told WABC radio in NY, but "we're going to be much stronger for it". There is still time for negotiations and opportunities for a mutually face-saving deal, though the uncertainty in the meantime is likely to be extremely damaging.

Pruitt Demoted Staffers Who Raised Concerns About His Conduct
By Friday afternoon, it seemed clear that Pruitt could breathe easier at least momentarily. Pruitt also sought to keep his schedule hidden after taking over at the EPA.

Bharat Bhatia, CEO of Conares - the second largest private steel manufacturer in the UAE, said the steel manufacturers in the UAE are not anxious or concerned by the imposition of tariffs on steel imports by the US.

That was backed up by Trump's chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, who said tariff negotiations with China had not started.

In the CNBC interview, Mnuchin avoided directly answering whether the United States and China were in active negotiations to avert a trade war.

While US officials said they were prepared to talk the issues through with China, there was no clear path to communication. So far, it has confirmed tariffs on just $6 billion worth of Chinese imports-steel, aluminum, washing machines and solar panels.

Wall Street stocks finished sharply lower on Friday after escalating threats in the US-China trade spat deepened fears of an all-out trade war. Also at risk are foreign firms that produce in the U.S. Germany-based BMW sends 89,000 vehicles annually from the U.S.to China, the Associated Press reported, while Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz ships 65,000.

At worst, he estimated, the American actions could shave one-tenth of a percentage point off China's economic growth - hardly enough to force a drastic reversal of policies, given the enormous benefits that Chinese leaders see in the state-heavy economic model they have relied on in recent decades.

The estimated value added in American exports to China accounts for only 0.5% of total value added in the United States economy. Those tariffs have yet to go into effect.

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