Friday, 17 August, 2018

Iran, Venezuela weighing on oil market: IEA

Iran, Venezuela weighing on oil market: IEA Iran, Venezuela weighing on oil market: IEA
Steven Clarke | 17 May, 2018, 12:54

"Still, the fact is that crude oil prices have risen by almost 75% since June 2017".

According to the latest Oil Market Report, demand is now expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (MMBPD), instead of 1.5 MMBPD. Conservative estimates suggest that the country could lose several hundred thousand barrels per day over the course of 2018, but there are several massive threats to PDVSA's operations that could make that forecast look optimistic.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by ample supplies despite ongoing output cuts by producer cartel OPEC and looming USA sanctions against major crude exporter Iran.

Brent crude futures were last down 65 cents at $77.78 a barrel by 1147 GMT, while USA crude futures fell 32 cents to $70.99 a barrel, leaving the spread between the two just shy of a 2015 high of $7 a barrel.

OPEC's success with the oil production cutting deal has been to a significant extent aided by Venezuela's catastrophically dropping production as the country grapples with foreign exchange shortage, USA sanctions, and a devastating economic crisis.

A huge boom in oil prices over the past year - with prices rising 75 percent since last July - will also likely have an effect on demand.

The re-imposition of pre-deal sanctions and the threat of secondary sanctions, that penalize countries that do business with Tehran or Iranian organizations, are expected soon.

United States crude inventories declined 1.404 million barrels to 432.354 million barrels last week, EIA data showed.

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Iran, which produces around 3.8 million bpd and is the Opec's third-largest supplier behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, could face severe disruption to its exports.

For the past week, crude imports averaged 7.6 million barrels a day, up by 278,000 barrels a day compared with the previous week.

Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs.

Oil prices dropped sharply from 2014, seeing the price of a barrel reaching lows of $27 due to a huge glut in the market. She added that there were a lot of questions to be asked at the next OPEC meeting in June. Still, the cartel's leader Saudi Arabia and some analysts believe oil prices can rise higher still before they start hurting production.

"So there's really no need to adjust the production levels". The cargoes are holding 500,000 barrels of oil and 300,000 bpd of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel.

USA shale production has been in the ascendency amid OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, with higher prices making production viable.

"A couple of years ago there was a view that USA shale was Superman and that, basically, we wouldn't have to go back to the traditional producers and say, 'Put more barrels on in the event of a shortage.' But, again, now we have these infrastructure constraints and pipelines that are reaching capacity, the Trump administration has to appeal to traditional allies in terms of managing the market".

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