Tuesday, 18 December, 2018

Oil falls on concerns over rising supply, weaker demand

That’s a 28 per cent gain in two years putting the US close to becoming the world’s biggest crude producer edging nearer to the 11 million bpd churned out by Russia Oil falls on concerns over rising supply, weaker demand
Jean Garcia | 12 June, 2018, 06:11

West Texas Intermediate's losses were less severe: the benchmark ended its session 21 cents lower at $65.74 per barrel.

This would have reduced supply in the open market and driven prices higher.

J.P. Morgan also thinks supply-and-demand fundamentals are poised to weaken due partly to voluminous USA output, but it believes prices could still see a high side of $78.75 next year for Brent if OPEC and Russian Federation extend their output limits into 2019 and geopolitical risks continue as expected.

JP Morgan cut its 2018 crude forecast for WTI by $3 to $62.20 a barrel.

He said, "It's insane and astonishing to see instruction coming from Washington to Saudi to act and replace a shortfall of Iran's export due to their Illegal sanction on Iran and Venezuela", and he added that "No one in OPEC will act against two of its founder members; the US tried it last time against Iran, but oil prices got to $140 a barrel".

On Friday, oil prices came under pressure after data suggested Chinese demand was waning and concerns lingered about growing US output.

In the United States, output has risen by nearly a third in the last two years, to a us record of 10.8 million bpd.

The media reported with reference to sources that the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is nearly a month behind the plan of oil supplies to its customers. Tankers waiting to load more than 24 million barrels of crude, nearly as much as PDVSA shipped in April, are sitting off the main oil port, according to shipping data.

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In top importer China, overseas crude purchases remain above 9 million bpd, despite a recent dip away from records.

Prices were weighed down by another rise in the number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the United States, which crept up by one to reach its highest level since March, 2015 at 862, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday.

World oil prices show mixed dynamics on Friday, as investors react to news about delays in deliveries from Venezuela and wait for statistics on drilling activity in the U.S.

Despite Friday's decline, Brent remains more than 15 percent above its level at the start of the year.

On Wednesday, crude prices received support in early trade on concerns about exports from Venezuela.

More generally, Brent has been pushed up by the voluntary production cuts put in place previous year, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russian Federation.

On Friday, OPEC's third-largest producer Iran criticised a USA request that Saudi Arabia pump more oil to cover a drop in Iranian exports and predicted that OPEC would not heed the appeal. It will be followed by a meeting of the OPEC countries on June 22 and a meeting of all 24 OPEC member countries on June 23, at which quotas for production reduction can be revised.

"We're going to be subject to incredible headline risk", said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund.

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