Saturday, 21 July, 2018

The rise in the USA unemployment rate isn’t bad news

The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June, as unemployment rose to 4 percent US jobs growth stronger than expected
Jean Garcia | 08 July, 2018, 16:56

Here's what the latest report means for American workers and the U.S economy as we approach the second half of 2018. That loss wiped out most of the 25,000 jobs the sector had added in May.

U.S. hiring topped forecasts in June while unemployment rose from an 18-year low and wage gains unexpectedly slowed, indicating the labour market is still absorbing spare capacity. But significant pay gains have yet to emerge in the economic data.

The overall picture is again one of a strengthening labor market, but one that is still not tight enough to produce substantial wage growth. "Clearly there are some sectors like trucking where wages are going up, but warehousing wages really collapsed and are only now just $12 or $13 an hour". That's consistent with other reports showing strength in factory activity. The Wall Street Journal credited new manufacturing with the positive news.

In its report July 6, the government revised up its estimate of job growth in May and April by a combined 37,000. With the job market expanding and new workers flooding in, some employers may not feel pressure to hike wages for their employees.

It's the longest streak on record. These people ultimately are classified as discouraged workers, who first fall down into a subset of the unemployment statistics (where the unemployment rate is now 7.8 percent in June compared with 7.6 percent in May) until they ultimately disappear completely from the workforce.

The big story in Friday's report, however, was the increase in labor force participation, which rose from 62.7% in May to 62.9% in June.

Joshua signs two-fight deal for Wembley stadium
Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs), 32, of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, was also offered a $20m deal for him to have an interim fight and then face Joshua.

"Let's remember that for some time, the unemployment rate has been below the level typically associated with 'full employment, ' but the relatively robust level of hiring being seen suggests there's more room" for the jobless rate to drop, he added. The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points in June for college grads.

While economists say the tax cuts are boosting growth this year, they warn that Trump's actions on trade could have damaging impacts on the economy and jobs. Swonk said the industry "suffered a blow during the month as announced store closings finally kicked in". Levies on $34 billion in Chinese goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday.

Major trade partners, including China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. Employers kept hiring even as fears grew of a global trade war.

But steady wage gains pointed to moderate inflation pressures that should keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases.

But the Trump administration's "America First" trade policy, which has tipped the United States into a trade war with China poses a risk to the labor market and economy. She also worked at an investment firm in London.

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