Thursday, 13 December, 2018

IMF chief economist not concerned about China’s ability to defend currency

IMF,Indian economy,India's growth rate 2018 IMF forecasts India's 2018 growth at 7.3 pc, praises GST, bankruptcy code
Jean Garcia | 09 October, 2018, 13:57

Foreign currency reserves have plunged 40% in 2018 to the lowest in nearly four years, while the nation is running twin current account and budget deficits of more than 5% of gross domestic product. "Any sharp reversal for emerging markets would pose a significant threat to advanced economies".

The fund left its 2018 U.S. forecast unchanged but cut its expectation for next year, citing the impact of the trade conflict.

He said the talks would be held for "such a programme, a stabilisation, a recovery programme, on which basis we could overcome this financial crisis".

The dominant USA economy has been shielded so far from the ill effects of the trade war, thanks to stimulus through tax cuts and spending policies, but that will wear off by 2020, the International Monetary Fund said. It called for a tightening of monetary policy, a move the Reserve Bank of India did not take when it kept interest rates unchanged last week.

In the last 10 months, the government has let the rupee weaken by around 18% in four rounds to Rs124.25 to the United States dollar compared to Rs105.50 in mid-December 2017.

Brazil will see a 0.4 percentage-point drop in GDP growth to 1.4 percent for 2018 as a nationwide truckers strike paralyzed much of the economy.

The IMF's cut to its outlook was broad-based.

Ajayi done for season with reported torn ACL
Le'Veon Bell solves three problems, instantly: Pass protection (good), pass catching (great), rushing (great). Wendell Smallwood , Corey Clement , and Josh Adams will compete for increased carries in Ajayi's absence.

With US GDP growth expected to drop from 2.9 per cent this year to 1.8 per cent by 2020, the International Monetary Fund also warned about the potential risk of an "inflation surprise", fuelled by the same tax cuts and rising spending used to cushion the impact from the trade war.

The Pakistani government has also told Beijing it wants to reconsider some of the projects it signed up to under the US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 percent this year, six tenths less than expected in July and almost a full point lower than the forecast in April.

Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 per cent this year - 0.6 per cent less than expected in July - dropping to four per cent next year. "For an economy that has become addicted to foreign loans and bailouts, the future is very much like the past", said Uzair Younus, a South Asia director at Washington-based consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group LLC.

The worldwide organisation said that inflation is expected to pick up in India due to a narrowing output gap, and the effects of exchange rate depreciation and rising fuel prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, will vary from country to country, it said. Over the medium term, growth is expected to gradually slow to 5.6 per cent as the economy continues to make the transition to a more sustainable growth path with continued financial de-risking and environmental controls, it noted.

Most of the "meager gains" from growth have gone to the well off, fueling support for protectionism and anti-establishment leaders, said Mr Obstfeld. "Inclusive fiscal policies, educationalinvestments, and ensuring access to adequate health care can reduce inequality and are key priorities", he said.

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