Tuesday, 16 October, 2018

India will break USA sanctions and keep importing Iranian oil

Oil dips but bounces off low on hopes for demand boost from China stimulus India expected to keep buying Iranian oil despite sanctions by US
Jean Garcia | 09 October, 2018, 18:34

Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said two state-owned oil refiners, Indian Oil Corporation and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, had signed contracts to import 1.25 million tonnes of Iranian oil next month, Mint newspaper reported. "Iran's oil can not be replaced by Saudi Arabia", the minister added.

We are interested in your opinion and trading strategies for oil. In the week to October 2, the net long position in Brent Crude dropped by 2.9 percent, after a 53-percent surge in the previous five weeks, according to Bloomberg estimates on ICE Futures Europe data.

Higher prices will not be good for consumers, as Novak and all oil officials are aware. Ahead of the gathering, U.S. President Donald Trump asked OPEC to boost production to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil exports, which are under American sanctions.

The US now seems to be softening its stance on the sanctions.

The inaction by OPEC and Russian Federation at the end of September-and the growing evidence from tanker tracking data that Iran's oil exports have started to fall quicker than most market participants had been expecting-has emboldened bulls, and some analysts started to predict that the possibility of $100 oil as soon as year's end is not to be ruled out. This also led to the softening in global crude oil prices.

Oil prices have soared in response to fears of supply cutbacks, putting pressure on the Indian economy and leaving Delhi with few options. A major portion of the current uptick can be attributed to the production constraints in Libya, Venezuela and Canada. Persistent internal issues within major oil exporting countries could keep prices high in the coming weeks.

Sanctions against Iran will block payment routes for India through the United States dollar. This might lead to falling inventories in the upcoming weeks.

India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, will buy 9 million barrels of Iranian oil in November, Reuters reported on Friday, citing two industry sources.

Google poised to unveil new Pixel phones, other services
Expect plenty of updates on the Pixel 3 and Pixel 3 XL with faster processors, improved battery and better camera all likely. A few days ago, we saw a brand new Pixel 3 review from Hong Kong, with just a few days to go until Google's keynote.

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018.

The months of September and October are infamous for hurricanes in the US.

Just as Brent Crude hit $86, Saudi Arabia hastened to inform the market that it is now pumping 10.7 million bpd-just shy of its all-time record high of 10.72 million bpd from November 2016-and could even tweak that 10.7 million "slightly higher" next month. Continuing uncertainty around weather development would be something to watch out for.

Moody's Investors Service in a report on Monday said the government's decision was credit negative for Indian state-owned oil marketing companies IOC, BPCL and HPCL.

Wells, who was in New Delhi earlier this month as part of the delegation accompanying US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for the India-US "2+2" dialogue, said there was no "blanket waiver or country-specific waiver" from US sanctions on trading with or investing in Iran or buying arms from Russian Federation.

The IMF said the contraction in the Iranian economy that it now is projecting over the next two years was due to "reduced oil production" under the sanctions.

The volatility in the crude oil prices has been vast in the last few weeks and is expected to continue. We believe the approaching November deadine for Iranian sanctions could provide some clarity over the global geopolitical moves and would be one point in the timeline to watch out for. Till then prices are expected to remain volatile and news flows could have significant impact on the prices in both directions.

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