Tuesday, 16 October, 2018

IMF Says U.S. Sanctions Have Pushed Iran's Economy Into Recession

PM Imran Khan chairing the Punjab cabinet meeting. — PTI PM Imran Khan chairing the Punjab cabinet meeting. — PTI
Jean Garcia | 10 October, 2018, 03:43

The IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook it was now predicting 3.7% global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9% growth for both years.

While the global economy is still on track to match last year's pace, which was the strongest since 2011, the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the overall performance masked divergence with mounting weakness in emerging markets from Brazil to Turkey. U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently accused China of manipulating its currency for a trade advantage.

"China and a number of Asian economies are also projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of the recently announced trade measures", it said.

Higher trade barriers also slow the spread of technology and lower productivity and welfare in many countries, the International Monetary Fund said.

"Securing US approval on the IMF Executive Board will require Pakistan to strike a fine geopolitical balance between the Trump administration's concerns over China's growing economic engagement in Pakistan and the country's bilateral commitments", said Bilal Khan, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc.

U.S. stimulus also adds to the "already-unsustainable" debt and deficit that will undercut future growth, the report warned.

Ousted Guardians of the Galaxy director switches camps, tied to new DC Comics film
To everyone inside my industry and beyond, I again offer my deepest apologies. Gunn produced the project with The H Collective.

Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, could be particularly hard hit by a drop in manufacturing orders and trade volumes. "In Nigeria, inflation is projected to fall to 12.4 percent in 2018, from 16.5 percent in 2017, and to rise to 13.5 percent in 2019", the report read.

The possible failure of Brexit negotiations also dampened the eurozone's growth outlook.

The fund also slightly lowered its forecast for Japan's economy to 1.1 per cent growth in 2018, down 0.1 of a percentage point from an April estimate, but maintained a prediction for a 0.9 per cent Japanese expansion in 2019.

United Kingdom growth has been drastically cut in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; uncertainties surrounding the country's divorce from the European Union have stymied investment and seen part of its key financial sector relocate to the continent.

The growth is being "driven by a pickup in non-oil economic activity and a projected increase in crude oil production in line" agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent producers, the International Monetary Fund said. The IMF talked about continued capital outflows from emerging market economies and pressure on exchange rates because of monetary normalisation in the US. "For an economy that has become addicted to foreign loans and bailouts, the future is very much like the past", said Uzair Younus, a South Asia director at Washington-based consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group LLC. "Any sharp reversal for emerging markets would pose a significant threat to advanced economies", he added.

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