Monday, 10 December, 2018

Inflation in PHL to ease — International Monetary Fund long-term outlook

Currency dealers fear the alarming increase will fan panic in the market for dollars causing a buying frenzy for the US dollar Currency dealers fear the alarming increase will fan panic in the market for dollars causing a buying frenzy for the US dollar
Jean Garcia | 10 October, 2018, 19:41

The IMF has lowered the growth projections for both India and China by 0.4 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively, from its annual April's WEO.

The UK economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow 1.4 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2019 - falling behind nearly all of Europe, with the exception of heavily-indebted Italy. The IMF economist identified the three economies as Nigeria, South Africa and Angola.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, will vary from country to country, it added. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.7 percent to 7,735.95. Angola, contracting by 0.1 percent this year.

For 2019 inflation is now also expected to breach target to hit 4.3 percent, from the earlier forecast of 3.7 percent. It said the global economy will grow 3.7 percent this year, the same as in 2017 but down from the 3.9 percent it was forecasting for 2018 in July. "Given the inflation outlook, monetary policy could also be adjusted from its moderately tight stance toward a neutral stance in Russian Federation".

In addition to the revised outlook for the rest of this year, the International Monetary Fund has downgraded expectations for China in 2019 - from 6.6 percent to 6.2 percent.

Brazil will see a 0.4 percentage-point drop in GDP growth to 1.4% for 2018 as a nationwide truckers strike paralysed much of the economy.

Cuts global growth to 3.7 %.

The ongoing trade war between the US and China could start having material effects on the economies of both countries within the coming years, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It found that global GDP output under this scenario would fall by more than 0.8 percent in 2020 and remain roughly 0.4 percent lower in the long-term compared to levels without the effects of a trade war.

IMF's forecast for Singapore's economic outlook remains steady at 2.9% for 2018, but has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% for the following year.

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"Considering developments since then, however, that number now appears overoptimistic".

"It's tempting to be a bit depressed about this perspective but I'm actually hopeful because there is a clear appetite to improve and expand trade", she said.

These include instances where some key economies have supported their growth with policies that seem unsustainable over the longer term. "These concerns raise the urgency for policymakers to act". The report said that aggregate growth in the emerging market and developing economy group stabilised in the first half of 2018.

"Since mid-April, rising United States interest rates and a stronger USA dollar - coupled with intensified trade tensions - have triggered a reversal in portfolio flows, an increase in borrowing costs, and a weakening in local currencies in some emerging markets", the report noted.

"In the Middle East, Iran".

"China is well aware and is taking steps to slow down the debt buildup", said Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.

"Broadly speaking, we see signs of lower investment and manufacturing, coupled with weaker trade growth", Dr Obstfeld said.

Further threats to global economy include "unsettled" politics and the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. There is still no fundamental reforms of the economy. "Potential gains from better asset management are considerable".

"These challenges call for urgent reforms", he said.

Some traders are speculating that the jump in the dollar's value could be the result of a deliberate rupee devaluation by the central bank aimed at securing a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund.

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