Monday, 27 May, 2019

Oil prices stable as US sanctions against Venezuela, Iran create deficit

Pipeline outages Nigerian oil output takes a plunge US oil settles 0.6% higher at $58.61 a barrel, hits 4-month high
Jean Garcia | 17 March, 2019, 12:27

Opec's self discipline and a surprise reduction in US crude inventories signaled tightening supplies, but concern that the US-China trade dispute won't end soon limited gains at week's end.

United States crude oil demand in 2019 is expected to rise by 360,000 barrels to 20.81 million barrels per day, a former Energy Information Administration (EIA) for an increase of 350,000 barrels per day.

The five-year outlook also points to a lower demand on Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) crude, as the United States and other rivals expand their output and hence exports.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that crude supplies from Venezuela are at risk of falling sharply.

Meanwhile, a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell last week as refineries hiked output.

The instability in Venezuela and the growing evidence of a slowdown in U.S. shale have pushed prices up.

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"Geopolitics has added another complication to the global oil market", said the IEA. We will observe the economic-political consequences of the USA cornering Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela in the global oil game. According to the IEA's report, this means for OPEC that not only it has lost its once biggest customer, but also that, with the rise of shale oil in the US, it will continue to lose its power in the global energy market until the mid-2020s.

The IEA added that, due to the cuts, OPEC members were sitting on approximately 2.8 million bpd of effective spare production capacity, with de-facto leader Saudi Arabia holding two-thirds of it. 'This highlights the continued shared responsibility of all participating producing countries to avoid a relapse of the imbalance and continue to support oil-market stability in 2019.

Also during the reporting period, Azerbaijan exported nearly 92.57 thousand tons of oil products in the amount of $ 48.5 million. With increasing competition, the global demand for OPEC production will not return to pre-2016 levels during the period in question.

Meanwhile, a political and economic crisis worsened by USA sanctions has slashed Venezuelan crude exports.

The IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrialized nations, kept its forecast of growth in global oil demand this year unchanged at 1.4 percent, or 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd). The newspaper article also states that USA energy gains will have a price for the environment and that Change.org has described the situation as a "climate disaster".

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