Воскресенье, 21 Апреля, 2019

Oil Price Forecast: Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

OPEC projects to tighter oil market in 2019 WTI: Downside opening up towards $ 63.50 amid rising US supplies
Jean Garcia | 14 Апреля, 2019, 23:16

Prices also continue to be supported by the on-going OPEC-led supply cuts and the USA sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, which have helped tighten global supplies.

"Pressure to global supplies continues to mount because of sanctions-linked problems in Iran and Venezuela and rising geopolitical risk in Libya", said Stephen Innes, head of trading at SPI Asset Management.

Crude futures rose again on Friday, heading for a sixth-straight week of gains, as threats of a wipeout in Libyan crude supply bolstered an already squeezed market.

OPEC revised demand growth down in 2019 to 1.21 million bpd due to "slower-than-expected economic activity".

Its 14 members pumped 30.02 million bpd in March, its lowest output figure since February 2015.

OPEC also revised down non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 by 60,000 bpd "due to extended maintenance in Kazakhstan, Brazil and Canada".

On the demand side, Chinese data showed exports rebounded last month, driving US and euro zone bond yields to three-week highs and helping offset weaker imports and reports of another cut in German growth forecasts.

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It said that US, Brazil, Russia, UK, Australia, Ghana, Sudan and South Sudan will be the main drivers of supply growth this year.

The prospective initiative from OPEC was reportedly encouraged by the recent rally in prices and because extending its production cuts with Russian Federation and other allies could over-tighten the market (the cartel agreed with allies to withhold 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude since the start of 2019, and its output fell 550,000 bpd in March to 30.1 million bpd).

Meanwhile, China's oil imports stood at 39.34 million tonnes or 9.26 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the lowest since October 2018, official data showed today.

Opec+, which includes most Opec members along with a number of non-Opec producer-countries led by Russian Federation, is trying to keep 1.2 million barrels per day (Mmbpd) off the market through June.

In 2018 OPEC+ chose to increase output at its mid-year meeting, only to return to production cuts in 2019. Additionally, U.S. crude output remained at a record 12.2 million barrels per day.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that OPEC production fell 550,000 bpd.

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