Wednesday, 23 October, 2019

NOAA: 40% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms In Gulf Of Mexico

Tropical system could form near Florida in Gulf of Mexico this week forecasters say Tropical system expected to slowly develop midweek in northern Gulf of Mexico
Elijah Vega | 10 July, 2019, 04:56

The low is now located over the Florida Panhandle and moving into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. But it does look like some tropical rain for us by the end of the week.

The trough is expected to move towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico; there's an 80 percent chance it's will form into a tropical depression. But again, there is uncertainty involved with the tropical system right now, and the forecast could change.

The low will likely reach the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. A more southerly system could produce a strong storm, while a more northern system closer to the coastline would likely be somewhat weaker. From there, the MCSs will undertake more tropical characteristics in the atmosphere, and a tropical depression or tropical storm may form.

Regardless of whether the disturbance develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, local impacts remain the same. Most of the forecast models suggest a westerly motion through Thursday and then there is a split between the models after that. That forecast will keep us just shy of the heat advisory criteria, but you will still want to exercise caution and stay well hydrated during outdoor activities. Away from the showers, temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s, and humidity levels are pretty oppressive.

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Residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for the first tropical weather system of the 2019 hurricane season.

However, the area of low pressure is still expected to drop into the Gulf from Georgia.

By early in the week, a sagging front, along which almost daily thunderstorms have been forming in the Southeast US, will end up in the Gulf. We will watch the trends with this through the week and have updated information.

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