Sunday, 25 August, 2019

El Nino is over, NOAA says

Increase in Atlantic hurricane activity expected after end of El Nino: NOAA The US could be hit by eight hurricanes before December
Elijah Vega | 09 August, 2019, 18:43

Up to eight more hurricanes could strike the U.S. this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is now warning.

The 5 August forecast anticipates seven hurricanes overall for the season, up from five hurricanes predicted in the initial 4 April forecast.

The original percentage was 30 percent, but a new outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has raised its projections of an above-normal season to 45 percent. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season threatens to be worse than originally forecast, according to federal researchers.

NOAA now predicts the season will bring 10 to 17 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes.

Two named storms already have formed this season.

- USA weather officials are increasing the likelihood of an "above normal" hurricane season. Two to four of those are forecast to be major hurricanes.

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"We expect El Niño impacts to progressively fade as we go through the season", said Bell in a media call.

El Niño-related wind patterns may still continue and partially offset conditions that fuel hurricanes, Bell said, but not to the extent predicted in May.

"The cessation of El Nino usually implies there will be a few more tropical storms/hurricanes than during years with El Ninos", Christy said.

Pete Gaynor, the acting Fema administrator, said: “Todays updated outlook is a reminder to be prepared.

“If a tropical system approaches our area, it will have an increased heat source to aid in intensifying the system — remembering that this is only one ingredient in the recipe of tropical system evolution.”. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline, according to the NOAA.

Kim Zuill, a meteorologist at the Bermuda Weather Service, said the waters around the island have been warmer than usual for the time of the year — something that can encourage storm growth.

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